Thursday, October 14, 2004

Glad I'm not a betting man

The day before the Australian Federal election, I made some predictions about the results. With most of the results now known, I decided to see how close I got.

Needless to say, if I had put my money where my mouth was, I would be much poorer for the experience.

Firstly, Dawson:

Prediction - De-Anne Kelly to get 53% primary vote (no preferences needed)
Reality - De-Anne Kelly 48.5% primary vote.

Australia:

Prediction - Coalition to win with margin falling from 12 to 3
Reality - Coalition gained 3 seats with 4 still undecided.

Democrats:

Prediction - Vote to plummett, Senate seats lost.
Reality - Vote plummets, Senate seats lost.

The Democrat vote dropped from 7.25% in the Senate to 2.05%. Very few people in Australia actually join political parties. The Democrats had the unique situation where the members were at mainly to the left of the ALP, where the people who voted for them were Coalition voters with a social conscience.

When the members took the party closer (or even past) the ALP, the Coalition supporters who used the party as their "Senate insurance" withdrew that support. It also caused many members to leave the party.

Long-Term Projection:

2007 election. It's a long way to go, but I predict that economic forces will conspire to bring down the government. Due to continued high oil prices, a lower $A, changing demographics and an overheated economy, interest rates will be forced higher and the property market will suffer a severe collapse.

many Australians are overextended and many will end up owning property that is less than their mortgages. They will hold the government accountable for their own greed and vote against the Coalition. The scare tactic of "A vote for the ALP is a vote for higher interest rates" will not work a second time.

Big prediction, I know. I've been wrong before, but let's wait to see how close I get. Hopefully better than last time.

posted by Kevin Paine @ 1:29 pm 0 comments

Thursday, October 07, 2004

Election Prediction

I did not get the chance to run through all the candidates for tomorrow's election.

I started writing when my health failed and I have recently had a relapse, hence I have not been able to keep up with my plan of writing every day.

This weekend, the people in the Dawson electorate will return the National Party Candidate, De-Anne Kelly. Even with 9 candidates and much anger with members of the National's traditional voter base, De-Anne will win and win very easily.

My guess is a National's win on the primary vote, with no need to look at preferences. De-Anne will attract 53% of the primary vote.

Overall, the Coalition will win with John Howard getting the Prime Minister's job for another term. (Although, he will retire after 18 months). The margin will narrow to 6 seats.

The Democrats vote will plummett and they will lose Senate seats to the Greens. This will be the beginning of the end for the Democrats. The in-fighting and excessive influence of the loopy left will split the party, or drive the party so far to the left, they will lose their traditional supporters. (Remember they were started by ex-liberal Don Chipp)

About this time tomorrow, I will have a rough idea of how close my predictions are.

posted by Kevin Paine @ 8:35 pm 0 comments