Glad I'm not a betting man
The day before the Australian Federal election, I made some predictions about the results. With most of the results now known, I decided to see how close I got.Needless to say, if I had put my money where my mouth was, I would be much poorer for the experience.
Firstly, Dawson:
Prediction - De-Anne Kelly to get 53% primary vote (no preferences needed)
Reality - De-Anne Kelly 48.5% primary vote.
Australia:
Prediction - Coalition to win with margin falling from 12 to 3
Reality - Coalition gained 3 seats with 4 still undecided.
Democrats:
Prediction - Vote to plummett, Senate seats lost.
Reality - Vote plummets, Senate seats lost.
The Democrat vote dropped from 7.25% in the Senate to 2.05%. Very few people in Australia actually join political parties. The Democrats had the unique situation where the members were at mainly to the left of the ALP, where the people who voted for them were Coalition voters with a social conscience.
When the members took the party closer (or even past) the ALP, the Coalition supporters who used the party as their "Senate insurance" withdrew that support. It also caused many members to leave the party.
Long-Term Projection:
2007 election. It's a long way to go, but I predict that economic forces will conspire to bring down the government. Due to continued high oil prices, a lower $A, changing demographics and an overheated economy, interest rates will be forced higher and the property market will suffer a severe collapse.
many Australians are overextended and many will end up owning property that is less than their mortgages. They will hold the government accountable for their own greed and vote against the Coalition. The scare tactic of "A vote for the ALP is a vote for higher interest rates" will not work a second time.
Big prediction, I know. I've been wrong before, but let's wait to see how close I get. Hopefully better than last time.
posted by Kevin Paine @ 1:29 pm
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