Election Prediction
I did not get the chance to run through all the candidates for tomorrow's election.I started writing when my health failed and I have recently had a relapse, hence I have not been able to keep up with my plan of writing every day.
This weekend, the people in the Dawson electorate will return the National Party Candidate, De-Anne Kelly. Even with 9 candidates and much anger with members of the National's traditional voter base, De-Anne will win and win very easily.
My guess is a National's win on the primary vote, with no need to look at preferences. De-Anne will attract 53% of the primary vote.
Overall, the Coalition will win with John Howard getting the Prime Minister's job for another term. (Although, he will retire after 18 months). The margin will narrow to 6 seats.
The Democrats vote will plummett and they will lose Senate seats to the Greens. This will be the beginning of the end for the Democrats. The in-fighting and excessive influence of the loopy left will split the party, or drive the party so far to the left, they will lose their traditional supporters. (Remember they were started by ex-liberal Don Chipp)
About this time tomorrow, I will have a rough idea of how close my predictions are.
posted by Kevin Paine @ 8:35 pm
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